This week felt different. The volatility was still extreme, but the tone shifted. What had looked like a controlled pullback earlier in the month turned into an acceleration phase. Instead of price being capped near resistance, we saw momentum overwhelm it. The late-February hesitation gave way to a renewed push higher. With First Notice Day now behind us, persistent geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, and structural stress still visible in physical markets, the character of this market has changed again.

SILVER

Silver began the week trading in the high 80s after the sharp recovery from the late-January correction. Early in the week, price briefly dipped back below 90 following the CME trading interruption, which halted metals trading and cancelled day orders. That pause temporarily broke upside momentum, but the dip did not hold. By Friday, silver surged decisively higher, breaking back above 90 and accelerating into the mid-90s. Spot traded into the 93–94 range, with Shanghai continuing to show a meaningful premium over New York pricing. The reclaim of 90 is technically and psychologically important. The backdrop remains structurally tight. March delivery open interest stood near 31 million ounces into First Notice Day, against roughly 86–88 million ounces of registered COMEX inventory. While not an immediate delivery crisis, the drawdown math is straightforward. At recent delivery rates, vault stocks can fall quickly. Importantly, open interest has not exploded alongside price. Physical premiums, swap stress, and regional price divergences suggest this is not purely speculative leverage driving the move. Momentum is now pointed toward the prior all-time highs above 100. The path will not be linear, but structurally the metal is behaving like it has entered an expansion phase.

GOLD

Gold traded steadily higher through the week, supported by hotter-than-expected inflation data and rising geopolitical risk. By Friday, gold was trading in the 5,200–5,250 range, within striking distance of new all-time highs. The macro mix remains supportive. Producer price inflation surprised to the upside, bond yields softened, and US M2 money supply reached new highs, reinforcing the longer-term currency debasement backdrop. Unlike silver, gold’s move was less explosive, but its resilience during equity rotation out of tech is notable. Gold is not reacting emotionally. It is grinding higher within a persistent uptrend.

GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitical escalation became more explicit this week. The United States announced major military operations targeting Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, while China and Canada issued advisories urging their citizens to leave Iran immediately. This marks a shift from contained tension to active confrontation. Energy markets reacted, but the more important signal is safe-haven flow. When geopolitical risk intersects with persistent inflation and currency expansion, gold and silver shift from tactical trades to monetary hedges. At the same time, India formally shifted valuation rules away from LBMA pricing for mutual funds, opting instead for domestic spot benchmarks. Combined with China’s earlier divergence from Western pricing mechanisms, price discovery is gradually becoming more multipolar. That shift matters structurally over the medium term.

COMEX

The CME experienced a trading halt midweek affecting metals and natural gas, cancelling all day orders during the interruption. While officially attributed to technical issues, the timing, just ahead of First Notice Day, intensified scrutiny. Functionally, the halt interrupted upside momentum near 91, but once trading normalized, silver ultimately broke through that level later in the week. March silver open interest into First Notice stood near 31 million ounces, with early delivery notices covering roughly 22 million ounces. Registered inventory remains in the mid-80 million ounce range. There is no clear evidence of imminent default, but sustained delivery combined with continued physical demand would meaningfully reduce available stocks. The arithmetic is visible to the market. Even without a formal crisis, recurring disruptions, backwardation, and persistent premiums continue to erode confidence in paper pricing dominance.

MINES

Mining equities responded positively but with less leverage than many expected given the magnitude of the silver move. Broader equity markets rotated out of tech into other sectors, including commodities, but flows remain selective. Silver producers outperformed gold producers late in the week as silver pushed above 90, yet in several cases equities are not fully reflecting the margin expansion implied by 90+ silver and 5,200+ gold. That gap can close either through consolidation in metals or more aggressive repricing in equities. For now, miners are participating, but not yet in a euphoric phase. Portfolio positioning remains unchanged.

NEXT WEEK

Next week, three variables matter most. First, the pace of COMEX deliveries relative to vault replenishment. Sustained net outflows would reinforce the structural tightness narrative. Second, developments in Iran and broader Middle East stability, as any further escalation would likely feed directly into safe-haven demand. Third, whether silver can consolidate above 90 and build acceptance above that former resistance. A sustained hold above 90 opens the path back toward 100 and the prior highs.

If you want to position more deliberately into this phase, take a look at the available packages and decide which structure best fits your strategy and time horizon. The focus remains on physical flows, delivery data, and whether this acceleration phase transitions into a sustained breakout toward triple-digit silver.